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U.S. Outlook: The economy is muddling along
Muddling through — that’s kind of how the U.S. economy’s performance has felt over the last six months. A worsening trade performance and declines in business investment and industrial production have...
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U.S. Outlook: Retail sales shift into higher gear
The U.S. consumer is coming through in a big way, and not a moment too soon. The retail sales report for May revealed a resilient consumer that will help lift growth in the second quarter and beyond....
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U.S. Outlook: More signs of a stronger second half
The U.S. economic data continue to improve, and the near-term outlook appears to be shaping up pretty close to our forecast expectations. We still anticipate the first Fed rate hike could come as soon...
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U.S. Outlook: Remain calm and carry on
Despite recent misses on retail sales and nonfarm payrolls, as well as market-rattling events overseas, we remain steadfast in our belief in our second-half rebound forecast for the U.S. economy. Our...
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U.S. Outlook: Right down the pike — now what?
Like a pitcher who’s on fire, U.S. economic data keeps coming in right across the plate. The August payroll report of +173K jobs with a two-tenths decline in the unemployment rate capped a decent week...
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U.S. Outlook: More signs of weakness in global production
We received more confirmation this week that global manufacturing activity in September continues to slow, though there are no clear signs, yet, of a global recession. At the same time, global...
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Instant Analysis: Employment report for September
Job creation continued to stumble in September. The U.S. economy added only 142K jobs on the month, compared to consensus expectations for a gain of 201K. This continued a string of disappointing...
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U.S. Outlook: The U.S. consumer hangs in there, for now
Consumers continued to spend at a rapid clip in August, and their confidence in September may not be very shaken by global market turmoil. On the other hand, the future for consumer spending might not...
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U.S. Outlook: Economy is looking better in October
Following the slowdown of August and September, the economic data points so far for October suggest the U.S. is picking up some growth momentum. This could make a December rate hike from the Fed a more...
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Instant Analysis: FOMC statement for October
Despite passing on raising interest rates at today’s meeting (no one thought they would), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed some real backbone today, releasing a statement that wasn’t...
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U.S. Outlook: Ignore the headline – Q3 GDP report was solid
Real GDP growth for the third quarter (1.5%) was a big deterioration from the second quarter’s 3.9% growth, but in this instance the headline was deceiving. The primary — and virtually only — driver of...
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U.S. Outlook: It’s all about the jobs
There were more hits than misses this week with the U.S. economic indicators, and the October jobs report solidified expectations for better economic growth in the fourth quarter. This will likely...
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Outlook for the nursery/greenhouse industry in 2016
The nursery / greenhouse industry had a strong year in 2015, and leading indicators suggest that 2016 will continue this trend. Looking ahead, I expect to see growth at 7% (based on this report from...
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U.S. Outlook: Retail sales slip again in March
March retail sales came in lower than expected, down 0.3%, ending a disappointing first quarter for consumer spending. Despite the lackluster start, it is too soon to throw in the towel on the U.S....
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Instant Analysis: April’s FOMC statement
From the April FOMC statement today: “In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic...
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U.S. Outlook: U.S. growth has slowed considerably. Why?
The first-quarter 2016 advance GDP headline came in at a disappointing 0.5%, following 1.4% growth in Q4 2015. This is the third consecutive year the world’s largest economy would start off the year...
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U.S. Outlook: Trade balance improves, but it’s not a good thing
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $40.4 billion in March, beating economists’ consensus expectations. Unfortunately, the recent narrowing in the trade deficit has been driven by import declines rather...
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U.S. Outlook: Is manufacturing resurgence a reality or a dream?
The minutes of the April FOMC meeting put the markets on notice that another rate hike is coming in June or soon thereafter, but will the U.S. economy cooperate between now and then? April economic...
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U.S. Outlook: Glass half-full or half-empty?
The mixed picture of U.S. economic growth continued this week, and the May jobs number was more than disappointing. Rough news about construction and manufacturing sectors was largely offset by the...
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U.S. Outlook: A few breaks in the clouds this week
Financial volatility continues to calm in the aftermath of the U.K. vote. Globally there have been some encouraging political developments and monetary policy signaling. For more on these developments,...
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